Premium Northern California Analysis by Kevin S. @Surfline
Effective Monday morning

SHORT TERM FORECAST (through Tuesday, October 4th)        
Highlights: WNW swell and Southern Hemi swell ease during the first part of the week.

Swell/Surf: Run of WNW/NW(290-310) swell holds going into Monday for chest-shoulder high waves at well exposed breaks and better sets for top spots. That will be tapering off through the afternoon. By Tuesday afternoon a fresh round of WNW/NW swell moves in, setting up head+ waves and better sets during the second half of the day, showing largest late.

The S/SSW (200-180) Southern Hemi mix that peaked over the weekend is winding down now. The easing southerly swell is still good for waist-chest high waves at well exposed spots Monday morning, while standouts see better sets. That surf will ease during the day and continue to wind down through Tuesday, for mainly knee-waist high leftovers at best exposures.

Note – combo exposed beach breaks will have fun, crossed up/peaky waves at times due to the combination of swells rolling in Monday, then fewer of those sets on Tuesday.

Wind/Weather: Light+ ESE to SE winds for most areas during Monday morning, rise some more for the afternoon. Lightest winds in the Humboldt regions. Lighter/more variable flow Tuesday morning, followed by light+moderate westerly onshores in the afternoon.

EXTENDED FORECAST (Wednesday, Octorber 5th, and beyond)
Highlights: More WNW/NW swell moves in through the middle of the week. Secondary Southern Hemi showing then too.

North Pacific Swell: Modest size storms tracking under the Alaskan Gulf and moving into the NW US coast over the next few days and due to whip up a run of short to mid-period WNW/NW(290-310) swell early in the new week. Under that scenario, the fresh NPAC swell tops out Wednesday into Thursday with head+ to several feet+ over surf at well exposed spots. Areas without the good NW view will see a smaller share of that surf. The WNW/NW swell mix fades on Friday and into the weekend. Stay tuned for the latest updates on these still developing storm/swell systems.

Long range progs show potential for stronger WNW/NW swell by the start of the following week, 10th. We’ll keep you posted on the progress of that.

South Pacific:  Fresh shot of S/SSW(200-185) Southern Hemi swell moves in on Thursday and Friday with waist-chest high waves at good summertime breaks. That surf eases into the weekend as smaller pulse of S/SSW swell joins in, keeping those breaks in ridable waves through the weekend. Good combination beach breaks get some peaks off the mix of swells running during the second half of the week.

EXPERIMENTAL SEASONAL FORECAST (Updated Tuesday, September 27th)

Going through the first half of October, long range progs are showing a gradual increase in storm activity over the higher latitudes of the NPAC. While most of those lows are centered around the Bering Sea and therefore beyond the bounds of our swell window, some of the smaller storms are predicted to get closer to the West Coast and send some moderate scale NW swell our way during the middle of the month. Extended outlook for the SPAC storm track is looking fairly zonal across much of the ocean with a decreasing trend in the number and size of storms during the first part of the upcoming month, leading to a slow down in Southern Hemi swell for the West Coast in the first few weeks of October.

The EPAC tropics are also looking to become steadily less active through October, which would be expected as we move into the final innings of hurricane season.  Next Update: Tuesday, October 4th.


This LOLA Forecast for Taitung created by LOLA on Tuesday, 10/04.

Forecast Outlook:

Small mid period swell from the east-northeast holding during the next few days. Light and variable east-southeast winds, increasing rapidly later and switching to the north-northeast. Moderate mid period swell from the east falling later in the later part of the week. Breezy north-northeast winds, whitecapping conditions with moderate choppy seas, winds dropping rapidly later.

Small short period wind waves from the east-northeast rising slightly later in the day. Light and variable east-southeast winds with smooth seas.